BC Dikes Failure Consequence Estimation

Project title: BC Dikes Failure Consequence Classification Framework

Client: BC Ministry of Forests, Land, Natural Resources Operations and Rural Development

Key Partners: Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd. 

Duration: February 2018-March 2019

Project Deliverables:

  1. A robust framework for dike failure consequence classification with guidance on future enhancements. The framework includes consequence under the following impact categories:

    • People

    • Built Environment (buildings and critical infrastructure)

    • Environmental

    • Cultural

  2. An estimation of failure consequences and ranking of all regulated dikes based on exposed assets (Tier 1 analysis)

  3. Show casing use of impact-based classification framework in 3 dikes using probabilistic risk modeling software (Tier 2 anlaysis)

The outputs provide an overview of dikes failure consequences across BC , which can be used for prioritizing maintenance and investments in upgrading the dikes and in developing flood mitigation strategies at provincial level.

 

Project Activities:

 

A. Identify data on potentially useful receptors for forming the basis of the dike consequence classification framework, and evaluate data availability.

 

B. Estimate areas susceptible to consequence from flood damage, in the event of a failure of the Dike Maintenance Act (DMA) regulated, non-orphaned dikes (hereafter referred to as regulated dikes).

 

C. Propose a defensible approach to form the dike consequence classification framework, given consideration to the data availability, costs, and project timeline.

 

D. Estimate the receptor consequence for each of the regulated dikes across the province due to flooding by receptor and by overall consequence.

 

E. Establish meaningful levels of consequence with supporting rationale, and assign a consequence level for each of the regulated dikes across the province by receptor and by an overall consequence score

 

F. Identify the highest consequence class dikes located in high seismic hazard areas

 

SAGE role:

SAGE provided advice on data types and data sources, selection of flood risk modeling sofware, design of the consequence classification framework, supervise the analysis output preparation, and development of guidance for future enhancements of the framework with better data, further risk modeling, and expert consultations. Sage on Earth has convened few international experts to provide advice at early stages of the project:​

  • Ruud Houdijk (Houijk Consulting, Netherlands): Qualitative consequence assessment and consequence assessment framework

  • Arash Beheshtian (Cornell University, NY): Consequence modeling, systemic modeling,

  • Bijan Khazai (RiskLayer, Germany): Qualitative consequence assessment/socio-economic indicators

  • James  Daniell (Risk Layer, Germany): Quantitative flood risk modeling

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